Legacy Publishing’s Pyrrhic Victory: Indie and Amazon Gain eBook Dominance

AAp eBook Sales
Source: authorearnings.com
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Legacy publishers scored an apparent victory back in November when, as a result of heated negotiations with Hachette Group, Amazon reinstated agency pricing for the Big Five. The first batch of sales reports since the agency model’s return show that the Big Five took a big gamble and lost.

For those who are unfamiliar with the term, agency pricing is an alternative to the more common wholesale model. The main difference is that with wholesale the retailer sets the price and with agency the price is set by the publisher.

Agency vs. Wholesale
Source: Publishing Trendsetter

Here’s a fact that seems odd at first glance: under the wholesale model, publishers and authors made more money. One of Amazon’s main arguments against agency pricing was that they, as the #1 eBook retailer, knew the pricing sweet spot that yielded maximum profits. They even warned that the prices sought by the Big Five under the agency model were far too high.

The situation doesn’t appear to make sense. Why would publishers fight for a pricing scheme that earns them and their authors less money?

But if you consider the fact that legacy publishers’ only real competitive advantage is their dominance over paper distribution, the picture becomes crystal clear.

For decades, the only way a book could succeed was if a publishing house let it into the paper distribution system that they controlled. Their power to make or break books and authors was absolute.

Then Amazon came along and invented a whole new kind of publishing that the old guard didn’t control. Instead of beating Amazon at its own game through innovation, the Big Five jacked up eBook prices in a misguided attempt to protect their paper sales.

That approach almost made sense when the Big Five had 60% of the eBook market. They figured that they could drive readers away from Kindle and back to Barnes and Noble by charging the same for a string of ones and zeroes as for a slab of ink-stained lumber. Once again, they thought they could leave readers without a choice.

But there was one thing that legacy publishing didn’t count on.

2015 Daily Gross $ Sales
Source: authorearnings.com
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Outfits like Publishers Weekly have been reporting on declining sales of print books and eBooks. It’s been pointed out that these reports rely on figures from Nielsen BookScan, which only tracks sales from a handful of legacy retailers. Many self-publishing advocates have voiced suspicions that the Big Five’s abuse of power is driving readers and authors to go indie, but there was no hard proof.

That is, until now. During the same period that the Big Five’s share of the eBook market has basically flipped from 60% to 40%, Amazon reports that eBook sales have risen overall.

Compare the chart above to the one below. The ratio of legacy to indie dollar sales on eBooks is almost exactly the reverse of the ratio of legacy author earnings to indie author earnings. The best interpretation of these data? Indie authors are massively outselling overpriced legacy eBooks.

2015 Aug Author Earnings
Source: authorearnings.com
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An eventuality unforeseen by the Big Five has thrown a wrench in their plans. Readers and authors are leaving legacy publishers for indie, reader-centric traditional publishers like Baen, and small publishers like Castalia House.

Considering the unprofessional and downright tyrannical behavior of some legacy publishing houses, the Big Five’s downfall can’t come soon enough.

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About Brian Niemeier

Brian Niemeier is a John W. Campbell Award for Best New Writer finalist. His second book, Souldancer, won the first ever Dragon Award for Best Horror Novel. He chose to pursue a writing career despite formal training in history and theology. His journey toward publication began at the behest of his long-suffering gaming group, who tactfully pointed out that he seemed to enjoy telling stories more than planning and adjudicating games.